Starting in 2027, a price shock at the gas station threatens drivers. The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS II) will be extended to include the transport and building sectors.
Another wave of price increases is rolling in. And yes, once again, the engine of inflation will be the European Union’s climate policy, as is so often the case these days. At the end of January, the Bundestag already approved the implementation of the reform of the European Emissions Trading System, which foresees the free trade of CO₂ certificates from 2027 onward in both the transport and building sectors.
What Has Been Decided?
Until the end of 2026, Germany will apply a fixed price on the consumption of CO₂ emitted by the use of fossil fuels. Currently, this price is set at €55 per ton and is planned to rise to €65 next year. After that, the politically defined fee will end. From 2027, the price will be determined by the European emissions trading market — a free exchange where companies must bid for CO₂ emission rights before consumption, and the European Union can set the maximum available number of certificates — a powerful regulatory tool likely to generate significant conflict. It is the strongest instrument the EU Commission has ever held to directly influence citizens’ behavior.
What Does This Mean for Everyday Life?
According to ADAC calculations, from 2027 onward, a price jump of up to 38 cents per liter of diesel or gasoline is expected — depending on market conditions, this could be even higher. For 2026, an increase of about 3 cents is already anticipated. For a family of four with two vehicles and 30,000 kilometers driven annually, the additional costs from the artificial scarcity of certificates quickly add up to between €500 and €800 per year. For many people living in rural or structurally weak regions, mobility thus becomes a question of price. Millions of commuters who depend existentially on their cars are left out in the cold. Politically, they play only a secondary role as paymasters of this spectacle. It is a scandal that the state already collects 54 percent at the pump and remains unsatisfied.