Time for Ukraine and its Western partners to take a hard and honest look at what they really want and likely can achieve.
Almost two years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there are no signs of a military victory for either side. Nor are there clear prospects of a ceasefire, let alone a negotiated settlement. Neither Kiev nor Moscow is willing to compromise on their stated war aims – but neither has a clear path to achieving them.
All that Russia and Ukraine can muster for now are the resources to prevent the other side from winning, at the cost of more human suffering, in particular in Ukraine.
At the end of 2022, momentum appeared to be on Ukraine’s side. A successful counteroffensive had delivered significant territorial gains around Kharkiv in the north and forced Russia to withdraw from Kherson in the south.
Cumulatively, these individual steps could allow Ukraine not only to deny Russia further territorial gains in 2024 but also change Moscow’s overall calculus about what its own endgame in the war will be.
Like most other wars, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine will most likely also end at the negotiation table. Even if this does not happen in 2024, it does not mean that diplomatic efforts should be neglected.
If their aims remain victory in Ukraine and a renewed and stable European security order in the long term, they need to contemplate scaling down military objectives and scaling up diplomatic efforts in the short term.