It’s safe to say that if the Ukrainian counteroffensive was currently making significant gains, everyone would know about it. Not only would mainstream media headlines feature celebratory daily news of any big gains on the ground, but it would not be the case that the question of how Ukraine is fairing would actually be slipping from the headlines (as it is now), no longer a prime focus in public discourse.
David Sachs has observed of the current state of the counteroffensive that, “With each passing day, it’s becoming clear that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is failing to achieve any of its originally stated objectives.” At the same time escalation between Russia and NATO grows by the day, seemingly with no off-ramp, now also with tactical nukes stationed in Belarus.
He points out, “Recall: the Biden administration’s bet was that the counteroffensive would roll back Russian territorial gains, cut the land bridge to Crimea, and force Russia to the negotiating table. That is almost certainly not going to happen. On the contrary, a stalemate is more likely, or even that Russia will take more territory and win the war, as Mearsheimer has predicted.”