‘Top secret’ document reportedly warned Kyiv faced shortfalls in troops and weaponry and suggested any gains would be modest
US intelligence reportedly warned in February that Ukraine might fail to amass sufficient troops and weaponry for its planned spring counter-offensive, and might fall “well short” of Kyiv’s goals for recapturing territory seized by Russia, according to one of a trove of leaked defence documents.
A document tagged as “top secret” quoted by the Washington Post said that Kyiv was facing significant “force generation and sustainment shortfalls” and was therefore only likely to achieve “modest territorial gains”. The document is a snapshot of the situation in early February, and it is unclear how far Ukraine, with the support of Nato member states, has been able to make up the shortfalls since then.
Another document, dated 23 February and seen by the Guardian, gives an overview of the progress of building 12 “combat credible” new brigades to lead the counter-offensive, equipped with a target of 253 tanks and about 1,500 other armoured vehicles of different kinds. Three brigades were to be generated by the Ukrainians alone, while the remaining nine were to be established with the help of the US, allies and partners.
The planned brigades were a long way from readiness at the time of the documents, with five yet to begin their training. Six of the brigades had half or less the equipment they needed to hand.
The White House would not officially confirm the authenticity of the documents, but US officials have so far only pointed to one document about Russian and Ukrainian casualties, reposted on the Telegram messaging app, as having been manipulated. The justice department has begun a criminal investigation into the leak, and the Biden administration has confirmed it is talking to partners to limit the damage to a string of bilateral relations.
“We will continue to investigate and turn over every rock until we find the source of this and the extent of it,” the defence secretary, Lloyd Austin told reporters on Tuesday.